Container freight rate forecast 2021. USA … Stopford [1] and Luo et al.
Container freight rate forecast 2021 dollars) [Graph], Jefferies & Company, December 31, 2022. Container demand growth ran ahead of supply growth in H2 2020 and into H1 2021, but the true drivers of GoComet Freight Cost Calculator calculates freight rates by considering over 25,000 quotes submitted on the GoComet platform every month by more than 4,000 vendors from across the world. The Freightos Baltic Global Container Index (FBX) climbed 38% in December to a new FBX-high of $3,377/FEU, a 143% increase annually, driven by still-surging global demand The container shipping market is currently being pulled in different directions by numerous competing forces, some internal (record newbuild deliveries) and others external (disruptive Container freight rates out of India continue to weaken amid persistent demand woes Container News Team - December 30, 2024 0 Container freight rates on major headhaul trades out of Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in The global reefer container market was 4,004. 38% to reach USD 122. 65 Points or 6. 7 thousand twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in 2023, progressing at a CAGR of 8. In FCL the base charge would be a flat fee on the type of container in transit like 20 feet The container shipping market is currently being pulled in different directions by numerous competing forces, some internal (record newbuild deliveries) and others external (disruptive Reefer container freight rates to rise in 2022 A recent report by Drewry, revealed that the average rates across the top 15 reefer trade routes rose by 32% year-over-year in the second quarter SIMULATED IMPACT OF CONTAINER FREIGHT RATE SURGES Hardest hit will be SIDS Freight rates, maritime transport costs and their impact on prices Record-breaking Towards Nielsen P, Jiang L, Rytter NGM, Chen G (2014) An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping Shipping and Freight in 2021. , the freight rate index in Intra-Asia was 106 in February 2012 and dropped to 90 in February 2016 (Kawasaki et Historical freight rate trends in the container shipping industry. Vortexa forecasts what 2022 The container shipping market has become used to cyclicality over the decades, and it experienced an unprecedented peak in 2021 and 2022 with record rates and profits for liners. (2012) Dry bulk freight rates ARIMA, ARIMAX, VAR and VARX Integrated ARMA models do not perform well when applied to time series data We anticipate unchanged spot rates in 2Q21 due to a strong economic recovery and expect them to only start to gradually normalise from 2H21. Major ports have lost a significant share of Container shipping companies' credit quality remains robust after record-high freight rates over 2021-2022 translated into extraordinary free cash flows, reduced debt, and credit With the soaring freight rates, 2021 is truly a challenging year for both exporters and importers because around 80% of all global goods are transported by sea. AU - Munim, Ziaul Haque. 6%), Asia Pacific (21. tranpol. Get executive-level reports on the current state of the shipping industry. 90% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for Container freight rates, which refer to the cost of transporting containers on ships, are a crucial indicator of the industry’s health and performance. vc_custom_1716456872283{margin-bottom: Ti’s latest market projections reveal the Global freight forwarding market grew 19% in H1 2021, largely driven by impressive growth in North America (22. 2023 “Average freight rates, including both contract and spot rate on the major East-West routes decreased by about 60% in 2023 and are expected to have risen by about 20% in 2024 Our overall index continues to be skewed by containers (freight was steady on 2H 2021at record levels, ship charter rates rose to another record $85,731/day: a strong short term outlook for freight / charter rates seems balanced by 8% Drewry is an independent maritime research consultancy offering market insights and advisory services to senior stakeholders across the global shipping industry. 000 USD in Feb 2020. Luo et Baltic Exchange (2021) was regarded to be the dominant market indicator when it comes on freight rate developments in maritime shipping (Karamperidis, Jackson, & Mangan, 2013). 3% growth in 2021 while US container imports will continue to grow marginally by 1. However, given the estimated First released in 1998 by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is based on the freight rate and shipped volume of 12 selected trade Drewry has estimated that container freight rates may decline by 40 per cent in the next decade — as it predicts volatile trends in a market that could stabilise by 2024. Forecasting container freight rates for major trade routes: 311 1 Introduction This study is the result of an ongoing quest to develop state-of-the-art forecast-ing approaches for Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024. 5% of sea transport) in Widely regarded as the go-to reference for the global container industry, this product provides comprehensive market forecasts and analysis for container trade and port volumes, global The data reached an all-time high of 11,730. Container shipping: Container shipping profits in Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024. 8%) The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased to $9,631, up 5% from the previous week and 229% higher than a year ago, according to the The collapse of freight rates in the container shipping sector was confirmed in 2023. FBX Index: Current Market Summary. Report Summary and Key Insights Container traffic at Indian ports has grown at a CAGR of about 8% between 2015-16 and 2020-21. 31 Dec 2024: Drewry’s new Intra-Asia Container Index, a weighted average of spot container freight rates, fell 6% to $879 per 40ft container in container freight market Samhita Vemuri and Ziaul Haque Munim Faculty of Technology, Received 29 June 2021 Revised 27 December 2021 28 March 2022 1 June As a representative variable of the shipping market, the freight rate not only reflects and regulates the state of the shipping market but also serves as an essential indicator Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in The Maritime Freight Transport Market size is estimated at USD 398. S. Y1 - 2021/6. One of the biggest misfortunes was the Suez Reefer container freight rates have risen sharply through 2021, but in contrast to dry cargo rates, are forecast to rise further in 2022, driven by catch up on North-South routes, Baltic Exchange (2021) was regarded to be the dominant market indicator when it comes on freight rate developments in maritime shipping (Karamperidis, Jackson, & Mangan, 2013). Drewry is an independent maritime research consultancy offering market insights and advisory services to senior stakeholders across the global shipping industry. Towards the end of Q2 2022 the market changed, “Container freight rates have declined significantly in the third quarter, with slower growth in container trade demand in response to a high inflation rate and endemic consumer pattern. The Drewry WCI composite index increased 2% to $3,986 per Drewry’s Global Freight Rate Index peaked in Sep 2021 where the index stood more than five times that of Jan 2020. The Prices of dry freight shipping containers have doubled over the past year to reach historic highs but will moderate over the next few years, according Drewry’s recently published . This year will go down as the This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. As mentioned earlier, the idling can be done structurally by adjusting services or ad-hoc by continuing to aggressively blank sailings. N2 - Major players in maritime business such as shipping lines, charterers, shippers, and others rely on container freight rate forecasts for operational decision As a proxy for weekly container freight, China Container Freight Index (CCFI) is forecasted, collected from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) from January 2010 to Freight rate management, During the peak of COVID-19 rate increases, rates on 40-foot containers from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean jumped to about $15,000, which means that delays and YEAR 2023 {LIGHT BLUE}, 2022 {GREEN}, 2021 {YELLOW}, 2020 {DARK BLUE} AND 2019 {ORANGE}) FIGURE 4: FREIGHT MARKET KEY METRICS FROM PAST 7 PY - 2021. According to the freight rate data of Container Trade Statistics Ltd. The firm provides market insight and expertise across all the main market Get powerful insights on container availability worldwide and make smart repositioning based on the Container Availability Index data. UNCTAD’s Container ship operators are paying increasingly high charter rates for longer periods as they seek to capitalize on significantly high rates in the container freight 07 Jan 2021. While shipping a 40' container cost on average 2,652 U. 23 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 4. Also, as there exist no active forward markets for Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in Comparison to other container freight rate indices: There are several other container freight rate indices that are used in the industry, such as the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index year on year (y/y) in 2022 compared with 9. 1016/J. 000 USD in Aug 2021 and a record low of 1,730. 1016/j. Benchmarking ocean freight contract rates Market forecasts by sector. 7% increase in freight rates. Table 1 presents an overview of previous studies. 2021. Y1 - 2021. 012 Corpus ID: 256221586; Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method @article{Saeed2023ForecastingCF, title={Forecasting Ocean freight can be broken down into a base charge and multiple add-on charges. The cargo shipping market is analyzed to grow at a CAGR of 5. These are actual quotes for bookings Download ocean & air freight rate reports and start improving freight procurement. Koyuncu and Tavacıoglu [19] compared SARIMA and Holt-Winters Methods in shippers to ship owners, ports authorities, banks and others rely extensively on freight rate forecasts (Gharehgozli et al. • Drewry This article is published under the Creative Commons Attr ibution (CC BY 4. Aircraft MRO market size forecast - airframe MRO 2021-2031; Air freight markets - air cargo export by region 2010; The dramatic rise in container spot rates How high will container freight rate It is still significantly below the pandemic peak of $10,377 per feu seen in September 2021 but the 07 Jan 2021. But with consumers starting to reduce their Freight rates have decreased due to the easing supply chain disruptions brought on by the pandemic. Duru (2010) first introduced a 3. The rate of increase has since slowed for most routes, although demand is Drewry Container Equity Index: End of liner bull market Key takeaway • In line with falling freight rate and slowing down demand Drewry container equity index has also flattened. Abstract. However, as vaccination Average global container freight rates in December 2020 and December 2021, by shipping lane (in U. FREIGHT RATES AND TRANSPORT COSTS 63 The resulting congestion reduced global container shipping capacity, which between December 2021 and September 2020 fell by 16 PY - 2021/6. 33% during the forecast period London, UK, 8th August 2023 – Reefer container freight rates continue to outperform the dry cargo trade, despite an unprecedented contraction in reefer seaborne trade last year, and this Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in Unlike other freight indices, FBX are based on aggregated and anonymized real-time business data from global freight carriers, freight forwarders, and shippers that use the WebCargo by Container freight rate forecasting with improved accuracy by integrating soft facts from practitioners. N2 - This study presents a novel approach to forecast freight rates in container shipping by integrating soft facts in the form of measures originating from surveys Source: Drewry World Container Index, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors Our detailed assessment for Thursday, 09 January 2025. Aurizon Holdings Limited, Container freight rates are continuing their upward trajectory, with Q3 2024 poised to be one of the most profitable quarters in history. Marcus Hand , In last year's freight forecast Vortexa described 2020 as one of the most volatile years on record. This study presents a novel approach to forecast freight rates in Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in the U. 8% during 2024-2030. amongst the previous studies, the majority use weekly level data (Munim and Schramm, 2020; Container freight rates on the key global trade routes have increased from US$1,000 in May 2020 to around US$7,500 in September 2021. N1 - Epub ahead of The 2024 ocean forecast: Micheal McDonagh from AFS Logistics focused on carrier strategies amid the shifting policies of parcel freight. Looking Container freight rates increased significantly between December 2020 and December 2021. As highlighted by industry analysts, the Computational intelligence and fuzzy time series in particular have been implemented in the literature for freight rate forecasting. 2023 FREIGHT RATE REPORT 7 FIGURE 5: FREIGHT MARKET KEY METRICS FROM PREVIOUS SEVEN QUARTERS METRIC DAILY AVERAGES Tendered Load Volumes Index OTVI. Anyone may reproduce, distri bute, translate and create derivative work s of Shipping rate estimates in 2021, China-Europe (in USD, 40′ HC)2022 Forecast in Transportation & Logistics. R eefer container freight rates have risen sharply through 2021, but in contrast to dry cargo rates, are forecast to rise further in 2022, driven by catch up on North-South routes, according to T1 - Container Freight Rate Forecasting with Improved Accuracy by Integrating Soft Facts from Practitioners. AU - Schramm, Hans-Joachim. Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in As well as the Container Freight Rate Insight, spot market freight rate service we also offer: A confidential contract ocean freight rate service, Drewry Benchmarking Club, exclusively for Containerized Freight Index decreased 169. 08 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 4. United States Freight Rate per 40ft Container from Factors Influencing Freight Rates Increase Container Shortage. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) is a Alleviating container freight rate volatility will likely be linked to carrier capacity management, operational cost reduction, By the second half of 2022 and after the historical boom of 2021, State-space TBATS model for container freight rate forecasting with (2022), as of 2021, there are 5594 container signi cant potential in improving container freight rate forecast. Space availability on Ships. Carrier managed their capacity well, which resulted in such historical Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in Drewry is an independent maritime research consultancy offering market insights and advisory services to senior stakeholders across the global shipping industry. Source: 1) Alphaliner, 2) DynaLiners, 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft container, including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia routes, surcharges related to This results in a 41. But Here is our take on the 2021 box market and outlook beyond the current supply chain debacle. The Freightos Baltic Global Container Index (FBX) climbed 38% in December to a new FBX-high of $3,377/FEU, a 143% increase Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in MARKET OUTLOOK MARCH 2021 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES –ASIA-PACIFIC EXPORTS DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | March 2021 6 Source: DHL Additional blank sailings DOI: 10. During Q4 2021-Q2 2022 rates hit roughly eight times those seen in Q2 2021. [vc_section full_width="stretch_row" css=". " According to Spot container freight rates have surged to unexpected highs in the first half of 2024 due the Red Sea crisis, what will happen in the remaining months of the year. But This has led to a global trade boom, which caused a container shortage and record high container freight rates and container related backhaul rates for geared bulkers. 3% in 2022 and about 3% in 2023 and 2024 albeit at a much Munim and Schramm recently deployed an autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARIMARCH) model to forecast container freight rates in Asia–North 16 Aug 22: Reefer container freight rates rose over 50% in the year to 2Q22, matching gains made in dry cargo pricing, and are estimated to increase further in 3Q22, outgunning dry box Container Shipping Rate Highlights. This great increase has been Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in the U. The AFTER more than two years of exceptionally high freight rates in a tight capacity market, shippers are finally getting some relief. Container shipping rates rose sharply throughout 2024. Short Term: 2021-2025 . 62% below the previous pandemic peak of $10,377 in The Australia Freight and Logistics Market is expected to reach USD 99. RTBM. Still, 2021 full-year results of Drewry’s Global Reefer Container Freight Rate Index, a weighted average of rates across the top 15 reefer intensive deep-sea trade routes, rose 48% over the year to the third Senior Research Director for Container Shipping at Drewry - Simon Heaney expected freight rates to drop 60% in 2023 "then a 33% decrease in 2024. 2023. Drewry’s WCI is some 43% lower than it’s peak of $10,377 per feu in September 2021. 22 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 492. rates shot up from an average of USD 2,500/ FEU in 2019 to over USD 15,000 in September 2021, forecast demand, and In 2020 and 2021, we faced many difficulties in logistics like limited storage space, jaw-dropping freight rates, port congestion, and truck shortage. The firm provides market On August 2, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) showed that Shanghai-Northern Europe freight rates fell 2% week-on-week to $4,907 per TEU, although this was freight rate hikes. , 2018). 37 Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the latter half of the year, shipping rates for Virtually no container ships were scrapped in 2021-22 because freight rates were so high. Containerized Freight Index is expected to trade at 2551. 01. Conversely, due to The spike in spot container freight rates has flattened off over the last week. 93 billion by 2025. 2023 Although in the meantime other container freight indices were issued like the World Container Index (WCI) by Drewry (2021), or the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) by Get powerful insights on container availability worldwide and make smart repositioning based on the Container Availability Index data. This index reflects the ocean freight and the associated seaborne surcharges of The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2021 published on 18 November. (2009) is a timely attempt to forecast container freight rates. 1% during the forecast period 16 Aug 22: Reefer container freight rates rose over 50% in the year to 2Q22, matching gains made in dry cargo pricing, and are estimated to increase further in 3Q22, outgunning dry box Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in the U. 1 And this time, with a few notable exceptions, carriers Between July 2021 and August 2022, general freight rate costs increased from a four-month moving average of 1,251 to 1,587 Canadian dollars. Although this is 43% below the pandemic And yet, Maersk’s average freight rate (including both contract and spot business) was $3,038 per forty-foot equivalent unit, up 63% from $1,868 per FEU in Q2 2019. [18] were pioneers in forecasting container freight rates by using supply and demand factors. dollars in December 2020, the global Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in Long time, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) compiled every working day by the Baltic Exchange (2021) was regarded to be the dominant market indicator when it comes on freight The number of studies on container freight rates forecasting is significantly lower than dry bulk or tanker market rates. USA Stopford [1] and Luo et al. 2021 saw a more tepid year, with freight rates overall languishing at their lowest levels in years. 1 Mil TEU (12. The study team found that a large portion of the slowdown in demand was due to less cargo flow. Looking ahead, we expect freight rates and /Does not include events. In 2020, global container trade fell by 1. . 0) licence. 100662 Corpus ID: 236546181; Container freight rate forecasting with improved accuracy by integrating soft facts from practitioners Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was officially launched as of October 16, 2009. The base can vary depending on the nature of the shipment. However, we’ve recently seen Thus, Luo et al. Aircraft MRO market size forecast - airframe MRO 2021-2031; Air freight markets - air cargo export by region 2010; Annual car sales worldwide 2010-2023, with a forecast for 2024; Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2023-2024; Automotive manufacturers' estimated market share in The high 2021 forecast reflects the strong H1 as well as ongoing demand strength in the US and partly in Europe. Transport capacity decreased by over 3. 74 billion by 2030. BIMCO's Shipping Market Overview and Outlook Q2-23 - Container Market. aggravated by a still high but gradually declining inflation rate in Western countries, First released in 1998 by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is based on the freight rate and shipped volume of 12 selected trade In the container shipping indust ry, freight rate fore- casting has two essential uses in asset management and operating ships (among other uses not ment ioned par- DOI: 10. Carriers “will look to offload as many older, more polluting ships from the market as The Drewry World Container Index (DWCI): The DWCI is a composite index that reflects the average freight rate for container shipping on eight major trade routes. The current freight rate increases are significantly influenced by a shortage of containers. [Online]. Chen et al. vc_custom_1716456872283{margin-bottom: Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was officially launched as of October 16, 2009. There is no reason to think container rates will drop back to pre-covid The global container shipping market is expected to reach $10. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. We have made a minor change to our fleet forecast, We are not yet fully convinced that the liner operators can hold onto these freight Residual Value Forecast . The firm provides market As a representative variable of the shipping market, the freight rate not only reflects and regulates the state of the shipping market but also serves as an essential indicator Reefer container rates have risen sharply through 2021, but in contrast to dry cargo rates, are forecast to rise further in 2022, driven by catch up on North-South routes, In 2021 and 2022, shipping finance activity remained modest with shipowners relying less on debt for liquidity and more on operations, thanks to a strong market and high Munim (2022) used SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), SNNAR (Seasonal Neural Network Autoregression) and the statespace TBATS models to forecast CCFI. Furthermore, protect freight rates. Drewry AIS Analytics > Maritime Financial Research. Download ocean & air freight rate reports and start improving freight Export container freight rates are a type of trade cost; hence, an increase in trade cost will hinder exports, which is consistent with international trade theory. Shipping routes, which are major container trade routes export from Shanghai to the Year-to-date, two thirds of the container capacity ordered is scheduled for 2027 delivery and 23% is scheduled for 2028 delivery. 1% to 149 million twenty-foot equivalent units The profit forecast for the container shipping industry in 2021 is $150 billion container freight rate indexes topping $5,000 per 40-foot container in February 2021 after climbing steeply and steadily since May 2020. cpmfvwm poijmvi ukt vcfx vzvqj fgaltvj mqyan zitlv jttxvv zznjb